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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (March 29)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed lower today, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3241.31 points. A-share market fluctuated around the 3250 points support level, as the newly-listed stocks tumbled but “One belt and one road” related stocks leaped. Chinese investors concerned the liquidity would tighten in the near term, as PBOC skipped the open market operations of reverse repurchases for the fourth consecutive day. Transportation and Coal sectors led the gains; while Telecommunication and IT sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 539.5bn, up 15.87% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3241.31

-0.36

245.37

4.44

Shenzhen

10520.82

-0.40

294.69

3.38

CSI 300

3465.19

-0.13

114.66

4.69

ChiNext

1929.20

-0.78

80.13

-1.67

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Transportation

600317

Coal

600971

Downward-leading

Telecommunication

300578

IT

300598

 

NEWS

*China's central bank skips open market operations. China's central bank on Wednesday skipped the open market operations of reverse repos, siphoning liquidity from the market. This was the fourth consecutive business day that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has halted the open market operations of reverse repos, a process where it purchases securities from banks with an agreement to sell them back in the future. (Xinhua)

*Memo gets tough on import-export outfits. China released its first memo imposing dozens of punitive measures against discredited trading companies to further facilitate and safeguard trading activities, especially with economies linked to the Belt and Road Initiative, senior customs officials said. (China Daily)

*Faster drug approvals. China has issued a draft rule that would speed up the approval process for pharmaceuticals, promising patients faster access to new, advanced drugs for cancer, cardiovascular and other diseases. The China Food and Drug Administration is soliciting public comment on the draft through April 20. Of primary interest is a stipulation that foreign drugs will no longer have to win approval overseas or have undergone second-and third-phase clinical trials abroad before they can be tested in China. Under current rules, new drugs of multinational pharma companies typically wait years to be introduced in the domestic market. (Shanghai Daily)

 

FUND FLOW

 

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This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12772




Macro

European Market Outlook: GBP Drops. PM May Set to Enact Art. 50; Asia Stocks Mostly Higher


Morning Briefing March 29th 2017


There is plenty of data on the calendar Wednesday, but undoubtedly, the main feature of the day will be the UK Government finally firing the starting gun on Brexit.

The European calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the German import/export prices data. At 0645GMT, the French consumer sentiment indicator will be released.

At 0800GMT, Italy's ISTAT will publish the March Consumer and Business Confidence data.

In the UK, the Bank of England will release the money and credit report, including the February mortgage lending.

At 1200GMT, UK PM Theresa May will hold the last PMQs of the current session, ahead of Thursday's break for the Easter recess. Following PMQs, May is expected to deliver a statement to the House, noting the Government has delivered the Article 50 notification to EU leaders and laying out the expected terms of Brexit.

This is likely to be the start of a further 'phony war' in Brexit discussions, as only modest response is expected from Brussels before the outcome of the French presidential election.

At the same time, the US calendar gets underway, with the release of the MBA weekly applications index.

At 1320GMT, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speaks at the DZ Bank-OMFIF International Capital Markets Conference in Frankfurt, Germany, with audience and media Q&A.

The US NAR pending home sales will be released at 1430GMT, with the DOE weekly crude oil stocks expected at 1430GMT.

Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren speaks on economic outlook to the Boston Economic Club in Boston from 1530GMT.

At 1650GMT, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaks at the "2017 Harvard Law Europe - US Symposium on International Financial Systems", in Frankfurt.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams delivers a presentation to the Forecasters Club of New York titled "From Sustained Recovery to Sustainable Growth: What a Difference Four Years Makes," in New York, N.Y., with audience and media Q&A, starting at 1715GMT.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: 

- Nikkei 225 down 19 points at 19,183.64

- ASX 200 up 51 points at 5,872.70

- Shanghai Comp. up 3.75 points at 3,256.71

- JGB 10-Year future down 2 ticks at 150.43

- JGB 10-Year yield up 0.4bp at 0.061%

- Aussie 3-Yr future down 2 ticks at 98.04, 3-Year yield up 1.9bp at 1.917%

- Aussie 10-Yr future down 3 ticks at 97.235, 10-Year yield up 3.1bp at 2.730%

- US 10-Year future down 2+ ticks at 124.09.

US TSY/RECAP: US Tsys ended Tues lower after an afternoon decline that accelerated toward the end of the day Tsys hurt by firm stocks, heavy high-grade corp. bond issuance and general risk on sentiment engendered by strong consumer confidence data - Traders say positioning indicates that the market has fewer shorts vs recent weeks.  US T-Note futures opened Asia-Pac at 124.09, last at 124.08+, 10-Year yield unchanged so far at 2.42%.

BOJ: The Bank of Japan offered to buy a total of Y1.13 trillion of Japanese government bonds (cut the scale of JGB buying with a remaining life of 3 to 5 years to Y380 billion from Y400 billion but left others unchanged from the previous operations, Y300 billion with a remaining life of 1 to 3 years, Y380 billion with a remaining life of 3 to 5 years and Y450 billion with a remaining life of 5 to 10 years).

AUSSIE BONDS: Aussie bonds sold off during the US session, mirroring the move in US treasuries as US stocks snapped an 8-day losing streak. US treasuries were also pressured by large corporate issuance and the consumer confidence data at its highest since 2000. The AOFM sold A$800mln of 10-Year paper today to decent demand, yields rose into the deadline, since come off 2bp. No Aussie data on the calendar for today.

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have moved between gains and losses in the first part of the session, initially opening around 50-points higher, started immediately retracing this move, went as low as 19,164 (-38 points). Energy is the best performing sector on the Nikkei, WTI is building on gains seen during the US session after retaking the $48/bbl handle, last up $0.12 at $48.49. Nikkei 225 last up 15 points at 19,218.25, Topix last down 4.68 points at 1,540.14.

JGBS: JGB's have seen a subdued session in Asia compared to their moves during US hours. After initially ticking higher by around 13-ticks, strong US consumer confidence saw a flight to risk on in the US. Selling in US treasuries bled into JGB's and around half of this move was retraced. Asia-pac participants finished off the job, and in the early part of the.

OIL: Oil is slightly higher in Asia-Pac trade, managing to sustain gains from the US session where WTI retook the $48/bbl handle. News that Libya have halted output from Sharara, their largest field, has been supportive of the upside, with the move higher moderated by a slightly higher than expected build in US inventories at the API report.. WTI last trades up $48.56, $0.18 higher.

GOLD: Gold is slightly lower in Asia-Pac trade, as mostly higher stocks and stronger US$ following decent US consumer confidence figures saw gold lose some of its appeal to investors. Gold last trades down $2.90/oz at $1,248.93.

FOREX: Unusually for Asian markets sterling took centre-stage, the pound was came under intense selling pressure, the rate dropping violently from $1.2462 to $1.2377 in just over half an hour. Some analysts put the move down to the starting of the Brexit process, with PM May earlier signing Article 50 to commence divorce proceedings from the EU, that said, it was fully expected and should not have come as a shock, it was more likely flow driven in an illiquid market. Cable was last at $1.2415. Dollar-yen, supported by slightly firmer UST yields traded higher from Y111.03 to Y111.32 and was last at Y111.28. Aussie-dollar climbed higher from $0.7631 to $0.7657, the move was largely cross driven with Aussie being bought against sterling, kiwi and yen. Aussie was last at $0.7645. Meanwhile, Euro-dollar was in consolidation mode and held a tight $1.0808 to $1.0827 range, last at $1.0817.).

 

Technical Analysis


BUND: (M17) Pressure Remains On 100-DMA

*RES 4: 161.78 High Mar 3
*RES 3: 161.60 High Mar 2
*RES 2: 161.00 High Mar 27
*RES 1: 160.71 High Mar 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.26

*SUP 1: 160.14 100-DMA
*SUP 2: 160.04 Hourly support Mar 24
*SUP 3: 159.73 Low Mar 24
*SUP 4: 159.38 Alternating hourly support/resistance    

*COMMENTARY: Bulls managed to work their way through layers of resistance Monday only to have the break above 160.81 rejected and the contract remaining heavy at the close. The lack of follow through on Tuesday’s spike retains pressure on the 100-DMA. The 159.73 support remains key with a close below needed to gain breathing room and return pressure to the 158.73-159.09 supports. Bulls continue to look for a close above 161.00 to shift initial focus to 161.60-78.

 

EUROSTOXX50: Pressure Returns To 2017 High

*RES 4: 3554.44 High Aug 18 2015
*RES 3: 3524.04 Monthly High Nov 30 2015
*RES 2: 3476.89 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 3471.50 2017 High Mar 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3465.07

*SUP 1: 3437.67 Low Mar 28
*SUP 2: 3413.58 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 3411.48 Low Mar 27
*SUP 4: 3390.04 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Bears remain unable to capitalize on dips with the index bouncing from ahead of the 21-DMA and layers of support Monday. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a close below 3411.48 to hint at a correction and below 3324.94 to end bullish hopes and shift focus lower. Bulls look for a close above 2017 highs to add support to the case for a test of 3524.04 Nov 2015 monthly highs.

 

Eurex Futures Market Close


 

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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Technical Analysis

GBPAUD Retraces 50% of Last Week's Rally Ahead of Article 50


The GBPAUD sold off roughly 200 pips yesterday leading into today's Article 50, unwinding a little more than 50% of the rally last week.  With the daily RSI and Stochastics still sloping down, the GBPAUD has more to slide today, but should soon find initial support at the 61.8% Fib retrace of last week's rally.  Significantly, despite the near-term pressure lower today, the GBPAUD last week broke above downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart), and should continue attracting longer term bulls on notable pullbacks.  Nevertheless, shorter term bulls will want to wait for the 4hr MACD to begin perking up again before jumping in with fresh longs.  I am flat and will look to enter long intraday (in the green zone of the daily chart) with an upside target in the red zone by Friday.

 

GBPAUD Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on USDCAD, Corn

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 

 


12770




Options

What's Trading: CCL


CBOETV - Roma Colwell-Steinke, Senior Instructor, CBOE Institute, discusses Carnival Corporation post-earnings.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12769




Futures

Blu Putnam: Equity Volatility


CME Group offers a variety of articles and reports sharing insights and analysis on market events and discussing major themes and trends driving opportunities today
 

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This video is from CME Group and is being posted with CME Group’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or CME Group and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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